Central African Republic

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in the Central African Republic is 13.9%, representing a high risk. The country’s history of civil war, repeated rebellions, weak state institutions, limited economic capacity, and restricted government control outside major urban centres leave it vulnerable to renewed organised violence.

Recent reporting highlights the continued importance of Russia’s Africa Corps, which supports the Central African government while expanding Moscow’s military, political, and commercial influence. The country also remains associated with armed conflict and insecurity, although the available reports do not describe a specific new domestic outbreak. The arrival of dozens of deportees from the United States is a politically sensitive development but is not, by itself, evidence of armed-conflict onset.

The largest uncertainty is whether existing armed actors and unresolved political grievances could combine into a coordinated challenge to state authority. Risk would rise with attacks on government positions, renewed rebel mobilisation, or a breakdown in security cooperation; it would fall with sustained ceasefire compliance, effective political accommodation, and stronger state control beyond Bangui.