Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Saint Vincent is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. The country has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, rebellion, or interstate warfare, while its small population, geographic isolation, and functioning political institutions reduce the scope for sustained organised violence.

Recent reporting supplied for review contains no credible indication of mobilisation by domestic armed groups, political actors, or neighbouring states against Saint Vincent’s territory. No prediction market is available. The principal relevant actors are the Vincentian government and security services, alongside neighbouring Caribbean states whose disputes do not currently point to an armed confrontation involving Saint Vincent.

The main uncertainty is that small states can be affected by abrupt political crises, criminal networks, or regional shocks, although none is evidenced here. Risk would rise most clearly with organised armed violence, a breakdown of constitutional order, or a hostile cross-border action reaching the islands; it would remain lower if political institutions and regional relations continue to function normally.