Silfio country intelligence · ATG
Antigua and Barbuda
0.1% annual probability
Population
94.21K
GDP
$2.34B
Currency
XCD
Capital
Saint John's
Land area
442 km²
Official languages
English
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Antigua and Barbuda is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. The country’s small population, geographically dispersed island territory, stable parliamentary institutions, and long record without civil war, insurgency, or interstate fighting strongly support this level.
Recent reporting identifies no domestic armed confrontation or credible military threat involving Antigua and Barbuda. Coverage instead concerns higher fuel costs linked to the ongoing war between the United States and Iran, while the government under Prime Minister Gaston Browne remains the principal political authority. No prediction market is available.
The main uncertainty is whether an abrupt political crisis, severe economic shock, or external confrontation could overcome the country’s established stability. Risk would rise most clearly with organised armed violence, a coup attempt, or a credible threat of foreign attack reaching Antiguan or Barbudan territory; continued institutional stability and the absence of such developments would support the minimal level.
Strategic reasoning
- Antigua and Barbuda has no recent record of civil war, insurgency, coup-related violence, or interstate conflict on its territory. Stable governance and limited exposure to armed political actors make a new onset highly unusual.
- Current reporting concerns imported economic pressure from an external war, not violence involving the country. The key stabilising signal is the absence of domestic armed mobilisation or a credible territorial threat.
Critical indicators
- In reporting available on 1 September 2026, Prime Minister Gaston Browne acknowledged that the ongoing war between the United States and Iran was contributing to higher fuel costs for consumers in Antigua and Barbuda. This is an economic consequence of fighting abroad, not a new conflict on Antiguan or Barbudan territory.
- Since independence in 1981, Antigua and Barbuda has maintained a broadly stable constitutional political order without a recorded civil war, insurgency, or interstate war on its territory. That history remains an important basis for the minimal current risk.
Probability trend
How the Antigua and Barbuda estimate has moved
Probability0.1%0.1%0.1%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Date
Regional context
Antigua and Barbuda compared with its neighbours and region
Antigua and Barbuda ranks number 193 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
Related coverage
www.cbc.bb