Dominican Republic

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in the Dominican Republic is 0.6%, representing a minimal risk. The country’s economic capacity, functioning state institutions, and generally competitive political system constrain the likelihood of civil war, insurgency, or sustained political violence. Its history includes serious instability, especially the 1965 civil war, but no comparable persistent armed conflict has become established in recent decades.

Recent reporting points to cooperation rather than confrontation: the Dominican Republic is exploring nuclear-energy opportunities with the United States. The development involves civilian authorities in Santo Domingo and Washington, with no reported mobilisation by domestic armed groups, cross-border attack, or interstate dispute reaching Dominican territory.

The main uncertainty is whether a severe political, economic, or security shock could generate sustained armed mobilisation despite the country’s established state capacity. Risk would rise most clearly with an organised insurgency, a violent breakdown between political factions, or an external attack on Dominican territory; continued institutional cooperation and the absence of armed mobilisation would support the current minimal assessment.