Dominica

The live 12-month probability is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk of a new armed conflict on Dominica’s territory. The country has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, interstate war, or sustained armed political violence, while its small size, functioning institutions, and security environment generally constrain organised armed mobilisation.

Recent reporting provides no indication of an emerging armed challenge involving the Dominican government, opposition groups, neighbouring states, or organised militant actors. Local coverage instead centres on governance, business, tourism, public health, and community concerns; a firearms-possession case in Mahaut is criminal rather than evidence of organised conflict.

The main uncertainty is whether an exceptional political crisis, coup attempt, or externally driven security shock could rapidly change conditions. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained armed violence involving domestic political actors or a foreign force reaching Dominican territory, and would remain lower if political competition, policing, and regional diplomacy continue to contain isolated crime.