Bahamas

The Bahamas has a 0.2% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, representing a minimal risk. Its long record of constitutional government, peaceful transfers of power, and absence of civil war or insurgency strongly support this level. The country’s small population, comparatively capable institutions, and geographic separation also limit the conditions for sustained domestic or interstate warfare.

Recent reporting provides no identified conflict development involving the Bahamian state, neighbouring countries, or organised armed groups that points to an imminent onset on Bahamian territory. The principal domestic security concern is criminal violence, but crime does not by itself constitute an armed conflict under this assessment. No prediction market is available for the Bahamas.

The main uncertainty is whether severe criminal disorder could become sustained, organised fighting involving domestic political or armed actors, or whether an external dispute could produce an attack on the islands. Risk would rise most clearly with an organised insurgency, an attempted violent seizure of state power, or a foreign military attack; continued institutional stability and effective policing would keep it low.