France

France has a 1.4% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, a low risk. Its strong state capacity, established institutions, advanced economy, and effective security services provide substantial protection against sustained domestic armed violence. France has not experienced civil war or an insurgency on metropolitan territory in the contemporary period, although its history includes political violence, terrorism, and episodes of intense social unrest.

Recent reporting does not identify an organised armed group, foreign military threat, or domestic political actor preparing for sustained fighting on French territory. Coverage has instead focused on severe wildfires and resilience challenges, while commentary about a possible future French withdrawal from NATO concerns alliance policy rather than an active conflict process. No prediction market was available for France.

The largest uncertainty is whether a severe political or social crisis could produce sustained violence beyond protest and rioting, or whether an external confrontation could reach French territory. Risk would rise most clearly after organised armed attacks, territorial control by a domestic group, or a foreign strike; it would lower in practical terms if political disputes remain within constitutional institutions and security forces continue containing violent incidents.