Italy

Italy’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory is 0.9%, representing a minimal risk. The low level is supported by strong state capacity, established democratic institutions, NATO and EU security ties, and the absence of a contemporary civil war or sustained insurgency. Italy’s history includes the politically motivated violence of the Years of Lead and persistent organised-crime violence, but neither has developed into an ongoing nationwide armed conflict.

Recent reporting provides no confirmed development indicating imminent fighting on Italian territory. The available item concerns flooding in Nepal and Tibet, while references to the Italian Navy’s seizure of an oil tanker concern activity at sea and do not constitute armed conflict on Italian soil. The relevant actors remain Italian state institutions, organised-crime networks, and external security partners; none is currently reported to be preparing a territorial armed campaign in Italy.

The main uncertainty is whether a severe political crisis, terrorist escalation, organised-crime confrontation, or spillover from a wider European war could overcome Italy’s institutional and security safeguards. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained, coordinated armed attacks or clashes inside Italy; continued effective policing, political continuity, and the absence of territorial fighting would support the minimal assessment.