Portugal

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Portugal is 0.8%, representing a minimal risk. Portugal’s stable democratic institutions, high state capacity, EU and NATO membership, and long period without domestic armed conflict support this very low level. The country’s last major internal rupture, the 1974 Carnation Revolution, was rapidly resolved and did not develop into sustained civil violence.

Recent reporting provides no specific indication of preparations by domestic armed groups, foreign states, or neighbouring actors for fighting on Portuguese territory. Portugal remains embedded in European security institutions, while its military activity abroad does not itself constitute conflict onset at home. No prediction market is available for Portugal.

The main uncertainty is whether an unexpected political rupture, extremist mobilisation, or external crisis could overcome the country’s strong institutional safeguards. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained armed violence, an attempted violent seizure of power, or a credible foreign threat reaching Portuguese territory; it would remain lower if political competition stays constitutional and security cooperation remains effective.