Silfio country intelligence · AND
Andorra
0.2% annual probability
Population
82.9K
GDP
$4.5B
Currency
EUR
Capital
Andorra la Vella
Land area
468 km²
Official languages
Catalan
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The live 12-month probability is 0.2%, a minimal risk. Andorra’s long record without civil war, insurgency, coup, or interstate fighting strongly supports this level, alongside effective institutions, high living standards, and its small, demilitarised position between France and Spain.
Recent reporting reviewed contains no specific development indicating preparations for armed violence on Andorran territory. The principal relevant actors are the Andorran state and its French and Spanish neighbours, whose security relationships and shared interest in regional stability make an externally driven onset highly unlikely. No prediction market is available for Andorra.
The main uncertainty is that a sudden political or security shock could change conditions quickly, although there is no identified pathway of that kind in the current evidence. Risk would rise most clearly with an armed domestic confrontation, a violent breakdown of state authority, or a cross-border attack reaching Andorra; it would remain lower if peaceful institutions and cooperative relations with France and Spain continue.
Strategic reasoning
- Andorra’s peaceful modern history, stable governance, and absence of organised armed factions provide no established domestic pathway to a new conflict onset.
- Its small territory and dependence on France and Spain for surrounding security reduce the feasibility of an invasion or sustained internal war; the key escalatory signal would therefore be an unforeseen breakdown in political order or bilateral relations.
Critical indicators
- As of 1 September 2026, the reviewed news contains no dated report of armed incidents, mobilisation, insurgent activity, or hostile foreign action on Andorran territory. This is consistent with the country’s longstanding peaceful record.
- No prediction market has opened for an Andorran conflict outcome by 1 September 2026. The absence of a market-specific signal leaves the country’s established institutional stability and close ties with France and Spain as the principal available context.
Probability trend
How the Andorra estimate has moved
Probability0.2%0.2%0.1%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Date
Regional context
Andorra compared with its neighbours and region
Andorra ranks number 177 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Southern Europe
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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