Netherlands

The live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in the Netherlands is 0.4%, representing a minimal risk. The country has strong institutions, high economic capacity, effective security services, and no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coup, or interstate fighting on its territory. Its NATO and EU memberships also provide substantial deterrence against external attack.

Recent reporting contains no credible indication of mobilisation, organised armed violence, terrorist escalation, or military confrontation involving the Netherlands. Coverage instead concerns routine sporting activity and preparations by the state-owned Nuclear Energy Organisation of the Netherlands for two new nuclear power plants, with EDF and Westinghouse awarded design-study contracts.

The main uncertainty is whether an unforeseen terrorist incident, severe domestic breakdown, or major confrontation involving Russia or another state could create violence on Dutch territory. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained armed attacks, domestic militant organisation, or a direct military crisis involving NATO territory; it would remain lower if current institutional stability and external deterrence continue.