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Silfio country intelligence · MCO
Monaco
0.1% annual probability
Population
38.34K
GDP
$11.13B
Currency
EUR
Capital
Monaco
Land area
2.02 km²
Official languages
French
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Monaco is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. Monaco’s long record without internal armed conflict, highly stable institutions, exceptional wealth, and very small territory support this assessment. Its security is also closely linked to France, substantially reducing the scope for an independent armed challenge or external attack.
Recent reporting concerns sport rather than security. Coverage has focused on AS Monaco’s Ligue 1 fixture against Marseille and the Roca Team’s possible move to the Adriatic League after exclusion from France’s top domestic competitions. No reported activity by domestic armed groups, hostile neighbours, or foreign forces indicates preparation for violence on Monegasque territory.
The principal uncertainty is the possibility of an extraordinary external or politically driven security shock, although no such indicator appears in the reviewed reporting. Risk would rise most clearly with an attack, sustained violent unrest, or an armed dispute involving France or another state; continued institutional stability and the absence of security incidents would support the current minimal level.
Strategic reasoning
- Monaco’s absence of a meaningful history of civil war, insurgency, or interstate fighting, combined with strong institutions and French security ties, makes a new conflict onset exceptionally unlikely.
- The current news flow is limited to sporting administration and football, providing no escalation signal and no indication that fighting abroad or elsewhere involves Monaco’s territory.
Critical indicators
- On 30 August 2026, AS Monaco played Marseille at Stade Louis II in a Ligue 1 match, with coverage reporting Paris Brunner’s opening goal; the event indicates ordinary public activity rather than armed violence.
- In late August 2026, reporting said Monaco’s basketball club was considering entry into the Adriatic League after exclusion from France’s Betclic Élite and Élite 2; this is a sports-governance dispute with no security dimension.
Regional context
Monaco compared with its neighbours and region
Monaco ranks number 185 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Western Europe
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
Related coverage
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