Liechtenstein

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Liechtenstein is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. The country has no recent history of internal armed conflict, a small and stable population, strong institutions, high economic capacity, and close security and economic ties with Switzerland and Austria. These conditions provide substantial protection against both domestic rebellion and interstate attack.

Recent reporting concerns additional external IT reviews following a cyberattack affecting Liechtensteinian institutions. The incident indicates exposure to hostile or disruptive activity, but the reported response remains administrative and defensive, with no indication of armed mobilisation, political violence, or involvement by a domestic armed group. No prediction market is available for Liechtenstein.

The main uncertainty is whether a future cyber or political incident could become linked to wider regional confrontation, though there is no current evidence of that progression. Risk would rise most clearly if an armed group emerged domestically, foreign forces threatened or entered Liechtenstein, or cyber disruption were accompanied by physical attacks. Continued institutional cooperation and the absence of such developments would support the present minimal risk.