Belgium

The live 12-month probability is 0.4%, a minimal risk. Belgium’s strong institutions, high state capacity, and stable democratic politics support a low likelihood of new armed conflict. Its experience of major interstate warfare is historical, while recent decades have not produced sustained insurgency, civil war, or armed domestic political violence.

Recent reporting shows Belgium pursuing a cross-border law-enforcement operation against pirate sites, seeking registrars’ banking, technical, and cryptocurrency data. Other coverage concerns a salmonella investigation and the Russia–Ukraine war, whose reported fighting remains outside Belgian territory; no current armed actor is credibly preparing violence inside Belgium.

The main uncertainty is whether an external crisis involving Russia, NATO, or neighbouring states could create direct attacks or destabilising spillover. Risk would rise most clearly after an armed incident on Belgian soil or sustained domestic clashes; continued institutional stability, allied deterrence, and effective policing would support the minimal level.