Germany

The live 12-month probability is 0.8%, a minimal risk. Germany’s strong economy, capable state institutions, federal political system, and long postwar record without civil war, insurgency, or interstate fighting on its territory provide substantial protection against a new conflict onset. Its integration into NATO and the European Union further raises the barriers to organised violence.

Recent reporting highlights political polarisation around the AfD, which could potentially win a state governorship in eastern Germany for the first time since 1945. Berlin is also preparing to attribute an attempted drone attack in Leipzig to Russia and impose sanctions, while foreign intelligence services reportedly account for a growing share of cyberattacks on German companies. These developments involve the federal government, the AfD, and Russia, but do not constitute armed conflict on German territory.

The main uncertainty is whether political polarisation or confrontation with Russia could produce sustained, organised violence rather than protest, isolated attacks, or cyber activity. A confirmed lethal cross-border attack, persistent armed clashes involving domestic political groups, or major institutional breakdown would raise risk; continued effective policing, electoral management, and allied deterrence would lower it.