Czechia

The live 12-month probability is 0.4%, making this a minimal risk. The Czech Republic has strong state institutions, substantial economic capacity, and NATO and EU security guarantees. Its last experience of interstate occupation was the 1968 Warsaw Pact invasion, while contemporary domestic politics has not produced sustained armed conflict.

Recent reporting shows no credible armed mobilisation or organised violence on Czech territory. An account reported funeral wreaths and portraits placed outside military-industrial companies supplying weapons to Ukraine, but the perpetrators and intent remain unidentified. Czech defence-industry links with Poland are expanding, while the main domestic pressure noted is the rising number of foreign pupils, including children from Ukraine.

The principal uncertainty is whether isolated intimidation could develop into a sustained violent campaign connected to the war in Ukraine or domestic polarisation. Risk would rise with repeated attacks, an organised armed network, or direct spillover from fighting abroad; it would fall further with continued protection of defence facilities, effective policing, and stable cooperation among Czech, NATO, and regional authorities.