Thailand

Thailand’s live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 4.3%, a moderate risk. The main supporting factors are Thailand’s history of military coups, recurring political confrontation, and the continuing insurgency in the southern provinces. These conditions show that political disputes and regional grievances can become militarised, although state capacity and national institutions remain substantial.

Recent reporting does not indicate a new armed confrontation. The strongest development is the planned visit of the USS Abraham Lincoln to Laem Chabang near Pattaya from 2–6 September, with more than 5,000 US personnel, alongside heightened local policing. The principal relevant actors are Thailand’s security forces, domestic political factions, southern insurgent groups, and the United States; the visit itself is a routine port call rather than evidence of fighting.

The largest uncertainty is whether political or regional tensions could overcome Thailand’s considerable coercive and administrative capacity. A new coup accompanied by sustained armed resistance, a major escalation of southern violence, or a serious border incident would raise risk; continued political management and containment of insurgent activity would lower the likelihood of a new onset.