Cambodia

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Cambodia is 6.6%, a high risk. The country’s history of civil war, insurgency, and Khmer Rouge rule remains important, alongside concentrated political power, uneven institutions, and limited capacity to manage coercive or criminal networks transparently.

Recent reporting shows a nationwide campaign against online-scam compounds, with authorities targeting more than 700 facilities, dismantling 624 sites in one account, and detaining nearly 30,000 people. The operation reportedly includes senior officials and law-enforcement personnel, highlighting the involvement of state-linked actors as well as organised criminal networks. Cambodia says major compounds have been removed, while smaller sites and alleged official connections remain under scrutiny.

The main uncertainty is whether the crackdown remains controlled and institutionalised or generates violent resistance, factional confrontation, or destabilising abuses. Risk would rise if armed criminal groups resisted enforcement or the campaign exposed serious state fragmentation; it would fall if authorities complete the operation without violence and sustain credible action against remaining compounds and implicated officials.