Laos

The live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Laos is 2.8%, representing a low risk. The country has experienced prolonged conflict, including civil war until 1975 and later armed resistance involving Hmong groups. Its limited economic capacity and concentrated political institutions remain relevant vulnerabilities, although the state has maintained internal control for decades.

Recent reporting reviewed provides no specific escalation involving the Lao government, the Lao People's Army, neighbouring states, or organised armed groups on Lao territory. Laos's one-party system, security apparatus, and generally managed relations with Vietnam, China, Thailand, and Cambodia currently support domestic stability.

The largest uncertainty is whether economic or political pressure could generate organised resistance that the authorities could not contain, or whether external tensions could spill across a border. Risk would rise with sustained armed attacks, defections from security forces, or mobilisation by an organised domestic group; it would fall with continued political control and the absence of armed organisation. No prediction market is available.