Myanmar

The live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Myanmar is 45.1%, representing a critical risk. Myanmar’s history of civil wars, ethnic insurgencies, military coups, and repeated state breakdown leaves a high likelihood that political crises generate new theatres of violence. Weak institutions, limited state control, and longstanding armed organisations further increase the potential for conflict to spread geographically or involve new domestic actors.

Recent reporting describes the military regaining key towns through conscription, sustained air raids, and Chinese support, while rebel forces remain active. The military, ethnic armed organisations, and other resistance groups are the principal actors; their competition over territory and administration creates continuing scope for new fighting inside Myanmar, even though much current violence is part of the conflict already underway.

The main uncertainty is whether battlefield shifts consolidate existing front lines or trigger fresh confrontations in previously less-affected areas. Risk would rise if military advances, forced recruitment, or resistance mobilisation opened new fronts or produced attacks in additional population centres; it would fall if major armed groups reached durable local ceasefires and territorial arrangements.