Malaysia

Malaysia’s live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 2.2%, a low risk. The country has strong state capacity, relatively effective institutions, and no active nationwide insurgency. Its main historical vulnerabilities are the communist insurgency, which ended in 1989, and intermittent militant or separatist violence in eastern Sabah, including the 2013 Lahad Datu incursion.

Recent reporting provides no indication of an imminent internal or interstate conflict on Malaysian territory. The available news concerns Malaysia’s cricket match against Saudi Arabia in Kuala Lumpur in the 2026 ACC Men’s Premier Cup, while no armed-group mobilisation, serious communal violence, or confrontation involving Malaysia and its neighbours is reported. The principal relevant state actors remain Malaysia and its security institutions, alongside potential maritime or militant actors affecting Sabah.

The largest uncertainty is whether a sudden militant attack, cross-border incident, or severe domestic political rupture could overwhelm Malaysia’s generally strong containment capacity. Risk would rise most clearly with a sustained armed mobilisation in Sabah or elsewhere, or a confirmed cross-border attack; it would fall with continued control of militant and separatist networks and stable relations with Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore.