Indonesia

Indonesia carries a 12-month probability of 12.8%, representing a high risk of new armed conflict on its territory. The main long-run drivers are its history of separatist and communal violence, including conflict in Aceh, Papua, and parts of Maluku and Sulawesi, alongside the challenges of governing a large, geographically fragmented archipelago. These factors leave some regions more exposed to renewed organised violence even though national institutions and economic capacity provide important resilience.

Recent reporting highlights severe wildfires and haze across fire-prone peatlands, prompting cloud-seeding and firefighting aircraft. This is a serious governance and humanitarian pressure, but it is not itself evidence of armed-conflict onset. Indonesia has also distanced itself from citizens reportedly fighting for Russia, a development confined abroad and involving no reported attack on Indonesian territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether local grievances, separatist mobilisation, communal tensions, or a major state crisis could combine into sustained domestic violence. Risk would rise with coordinated attacks, rapid mobilisation by armed groups, or escalation in Papua or another historically affected region; it would fall with effective security management, credible political accommodation, and containment of local unrest.