Vietnam

Vietnam’s live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory is 3.0%, representing a low risk. The country has a powerful central government, substantial economic and administrative capacity, and no current internal armed conflict. However, its history includes the prolonged First Indochina and Vietnam wars, while unresolved maritime and territorial disputes remain relevant background risks.

Recent reporting shows no armed incident or mobilisation indicating imminent conflict inside Vietnam. Coverage instead highlights energy-efficiency policies supporting green growth and economic modernisation. Historical war commemoration reinforces the depth of the country’s conflict experience but does not indicate renewed fighting. China is the principal external actor relevant to territorial tensions, particularly in the South China Sea.

The main uncertainty is whether a maritime dispute or domestic political shock could overcome Vietnam’s strong state control and preference for managed diplomacy. Risk would rise most clearly after a cross-border attack, sustained violence involving domestic actors, or a serious China–Vietnam confrontation reaching Vietnamese territory; continued diplomatic management and economic development would support the current low-risk assessment.