Timor-Leste

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in East Timor is 1.2%, a low risk. The country’s prolonged Indonesian occupation and violent 1999 independence transition leave a significant conflict legacy, while limited economic capacity and institutional fragility can constrain the state’s ability to absorb severe political or social shocks.

Recent reporting provides no indication of fighting on East Timorese territory. Indonesia, the United States, and other partners began the annual Super Garuda Shield exercises on 31 August 2026, with East Timor among the countries sending observers. Indonesia’s participation is relevant because of the countries’ history, but the reported role is observational rather than operational.

The main uncertainty is whether domestic political or social tensions could become organised armed violence, or whether regional military activity could generate an unintended cross-border crisis. Risk would rise most clearly through an armed confrontation involving East Timorese security forces or organised domestic groups; sustained institutional stability and continued cooperative ties with Indonesia would support the low-risk assessment.