Brunei

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Brunei is 0.2%, representing a minimal risk. The country has no recent record of civil war, insurgency, rebellion, or interstate fighting on its territory. A wealthy economy, concentrated state authority under the Sultan, and capable security institutions further support domestic order.

Recent reporting provides no identified armed mobilisation, separatist campaign, coup attempt, or hostile foreign action directed at Brunei. The principal relevant actors are the government and security forces, with Malaysia and Indonesia as neighbouring states; their established relations and regional ASEAN framework are generally stabilising.

The main uncertainty is that highly centralised political systems can conceal early dissent, while Brunei’s location near major maritime routes creates exposure to wider regional tensions. Risk would rise with sustained domestic armed violence, a violent challenge to the monarchy, or a serious deterioration in relations with a neighbour. Continued political stability and cooperative regional security would reinforce the minimal-risk assessment.