Afghanistan

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Afghanistan is 10.5%, a high risk. Afghanistan’s recent history of civil war, insurgency, foreign intervention, and fragmented armed authority leaves durable pathways to renewed internal violence. Weak institutions, severe economic hardship, social exclusion, and unresolved wartime grievances also limit the state’s ability to manage disputes peacefully.

Recent reporting portrays Taliban-controlled Afghanistan as politically repressive and economically distressed, while the UN says many victims of the 2001–2021 war remain without justice or acknowledgement. Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s call for a “new chapter” and normalized ties with Washington is a stabilising diplomatic signal, but Taliban enforcement actions, including arrests of cryptocurrency dealers, demonstrate coercive governance. Islamic State Khorasan and other armed opponents remain the principal internal security concern.

The largest uncertainty is whether Taliban control continues to contain challengers or instead generates wider resistance, factional splits, or retaliation. A sustained rise in attacks by ISKP or anti-Taliban forces, a visible Taliban split, or severe deterioration in economic and humanitarian conditions would raise risk; durable external engagement and effective containment of armed groups would lower it.