Uzbekistan

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Uzbekistan is 4.0%, a moderate risk. The country benefits from strong central authority, substantial security capacity, and geographic distance from most active war zones. However, its history includes militant incursions linked to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in 1999–2000 and serious domestic unrest, including the 2005 Andijan violence, demonstrating that regional militancy and internal instability can produce acute security crises.

Recent reporting points primarily to expanding external partnerships rather than imminent violence. Uzbekistan is reportedly set to receive China’s J-10 fighter aircraft, while India and Uzbekistan have agreed a long-term uranium supply arrangement. China, India, Russia, and the United States are competing for influence, but the developments described do not indicate an armed confrontation on Uzbek territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether economic, political, or regional pressures could expose latent domestic grievances or draw militant activity across borders. Risk would rise with sustained political unrest, organised armed attacks, or militant infiltration from neighbouring areas; it would fall with continued internal stability and security cooperation that contains such threats.