Kazakhstan

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Kazakhstan is 1.1%, a low risk. Kazakhstan has generally maintained strong state control, substantial security capacity, and limited organized armed opposition. However, the January 2022 unrest, which included deadly violence and the deployment of a Russia-led peacekeeping force, shows that severe political and socioeconomic tensions can escalate rapidly.

Recent reporting provides little evidence of an imminent new conflict. An August 2026 UN News report on survivors of nuclear testing at Semipalatinsk highlights the enduring social and health legacy of Soviet-era tests, but does not indicate current armed mobilisation. The principal relevant actors remain Kazakhstan’s government and security forces, with Russia an important external security partner.

The largest uncertainty is whether a future political crisis, economic shock, or succession dispute could again trigger widespread violence beyond the state’s ability to contain it. Risk would rise with renewed mass unrest accompanied by organised armed groups, elite defections, or outside military intervention; it would fall with sustained political stability and effective management of regional and socioeconomic grievances.