Nepal

Nepal faces a 5.9% probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory within 12 months, placing it in a high risk category. The main long-run factors are the country’s history of civil war, fragile political institutions, difficult terrain, uneven state capacity, and unresolved social and regional grievances. The Maoist insurgency lasted from 1996 to 2006 and demonstrated how quickly political disputes could become organised violence.

Recent reporting supplied for this assessment contains no specific escalation involving the Nepalese state, domestic armed groups, or neighbouring countries. The principal relevant actors remain the government, major political parties including the former Maoist movement, security forces, and local grievance-based networks. No prediction-market signal is available.

The largest uncertainty is whether political competition, institutional disputes, or socioeconomic grievances could again produce organised mobilisation rather than remaining within constitutional politics. Risk would rise with a sustained armed campaign, major breakdown in central authority, or violent confrontation involving security forces; it would fall with durable political accommodation, effective local governance, and credible management of longstanding grievances.