Sri Lanka

The 12-month probability of a new armed conflict on Sri Lanka’s territory is 9.7%, a high risk. The principal long-run factors are the country’s history of civil war, unresolved ethnic and political grievances, periodic mass mobilisation, and institutional and economic pressures that can strain state legitimacy. The 2009 end of the Tamil separatist war removed the main organised insurgency but did not eliminate the underlying possibility of renewed communal or political violence.

Recent reporting reviewed is concentrated on Sri Lanka’s women’s cricket team at the 2026 Women’s Asia Cup, including its nine-wicket victory over the United Arab Emirates at Dubai International Stadium. It provides no identified evidence of a new armed confrontation involving the Sri Lankan state, domestic armed groups, or neighbouring countries on Sri Lankan territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether economic or political grievances could again produce sustained violence, especially if communal tensions are activated or security-force responses escalate. Risk would rise with organised attacks, armed mobilisation, renewed separatist activity, or prolonged violent unrest; it would be reinforced downward by durable political accommodation, effective civilian institutions, and peaceful management of major protests.