Pakistan

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Pakistan is 25.4%, a critical risk. Pakistan’s long history of insurgency, sectarian violence, military intervention in politics, and repeated conflict involving the Pakistani Taliban and Baloch separatists leaves it exposed to renewed internal armed violence. Its difficult economic conditions and strained institutions further limit crisis-management capacity.

Recent reporting highlights Pakistan’s expanding security role beyond its borders. On August 31, Islamabad said six or seven Muslim-majority countries were interested in joining the Mecca Defense Agreement, while Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey discussed military cooperation in Istanbul. Pakistan is also mediating between Iran and the United States, increasing its diplomatic exposure to regional escalation. These developments matter chiefly because tensions involving India, Iran, or Gulf partners could create pressure on Pakistani territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether regional security partnerships and mediation reduce escalation or pull Pakistan into confrontation. The clearest risk-raising development would be an Indian strike or a major militant campaign inside Pakistan; sustained Pakistani-led diplomacy, alongside effective containment of domestic armed groups, would lower the likelihood of a new onset.