Marshall Islands

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in the Marshall Islands is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. The country has no recent record of civil war, insurgency, or sustained domestic armed violence, and its small population, remote geography, and close security and economic relationship with the United States constrain the prospects for organised violence on its territory.

Recent reporting places the Marshall Islands within wider Micronesian diplomacy and great-power competition, rather than describing threats or armed incidents there. The country’s association with US defence arrangements, including the reported US military presence referenced in regional coverage, makes it geopolitically important but also provides an external security guarantee; regional political disagreements remain diplomatic.

The main uncertainty is whether intensifying US-China competition could produce coercion, disruption, or a localised confrontation involving the islands. Risk would rise most clearly with a domestic armed challenge, a breakdown in the US-Marshal Islands security relationship, or a foreign attack reaching Marshallese territory; continued diplomatic competition without violence would support the minimal classification.