Micronesia

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Micronesia is 0.2%, representing a minimal risk. The Federated States of Micronesia has no recent record of civil war, insurgency, coups, or interstate warfare on its territory. Its small population, geographic dispersion, limited military capacity, and compact-based security relationship with the United States constrain its ability to initiate or sustain armed conflict.

The strongest recent development is China’s July 6, 2026, submarine-launched ballistic-missile test in the Pacific. The missile’s reported transit through Micronesia’s exclusive economic zone reflects intensifying great-power activity around the islands, with China, Taiwan, and the United States as relevant actors, but it was not an attack on Micronesian territory.

The main uncertainty is whether wider US-China rivalry could produce coercion, miscalculation, or pressure affecting Micronesian waters and islands. Risk would rise most clearly with a violation of territorial waters, an attack on Micronesian facilities, or domestic armed mobilisation; continued maritime activity confined outside the country’s territory would support the minimal-risk assessment.