Nauru

The 12-month probability is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. Nauru has no established history of civil war, insurgency, or interstate warfare, while its very small population, isolated geography, and limited military capacity make sustained armed conflict difficult to organise. Political disputes have generally remained within constitutional and electoral channels.

Recent reporting provides no indication of armed mobilisation, communal violence, or external threats involving Nauru. A 1 September 2026 Australian report mentioned Nauru only as a destination for refugees transferred from the Tampa affair, underscoring its close relationship with Australia rather than identifying a new security crisis. Australia remains an important external partner and security backstop.

The main uncertainty is the possibility of an abrupt domestic political rupture or an external crisis affecting the island, although no current reporting points to either. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained armed clashes among political or community groups, or a hostile foreign attack reaching Nauruan territory; it would remain lower if political disputes continue to be managed through civilian institutions and external partnerships.