Kiribati

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Kiribati is 0.2%, representing a minimal risk. Kiribati has no established history of civil war, insurgency, coups, or sustained domestic armed violence. Its small, dispersed population, remote geography, and generally functioning political institutions further limit the likelihood that organised armed conflict would emerge on its territory.

Recent reporting provides no indication of domestic violence or an imminent external attack. The Conversation reported on 28 August 2026 that Kiribati was among five Pacific Islands Forum members whose leaders were absent, amid questions about China’s role in the withdrawals. This signals diplomatic friction, involving Kiribati, China, and regional governments, but not armed escalation on Kiribati’s territory.

The main uncertainty is whether sharper strategic competition in the Pacific could produce coercion or a security incident affecting Kiribati. Risk would rise most clearly with an armed confrontation, violent political breakdown, or credible military activity around the islands; it would remain lower if regional disputes stay diplomatic and Kiribati’s institutions continue to manage political disagreements peacefully.