Serbia

The live 12-month probability is 1.1%, representing a low risk. Serbia’s history of involvement in the Yugoslav wars, unresolved disputes surrounding Kosovo, and periodic nationalist mobilisation keep the possibility of renewed armed violence above the minimum level. At the same time, state capacity, the absence of an ongoing domestic war, and Serbia’s economic and political ties with European institutions generally constrain escalation.

Recent reporting highlights tensions over the reported state funeral for former Bosnian Serb commander Ratko Mladić, with Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković warning on 1 September that the ceremony could damage Serbia’s EU prospects. Separately, a Chinese-Serbian robotics venture in western Serbia reportedly said its humanoid systems could enter military use within weeks. These developments concern regional relations, historical memory, and military capability, but do not themselves indicate fighting on Serbian territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether nationalist disputes involving Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, or domestic political actors could turn into sustained violence. Risk would rise most clearly after an armed incident involving Serbian security forces or organised domestic groups inside Serbia; it would fall with continued political containment, functioning regional channels, and no mobilisation linked to these disputes.