Croatia

The 12-month probability of a new armed conflict on Croatian territory is 1.0%, representing a minimal risk. Croatia’s history of war during the 1990s remains the most important background factor, but its EU and NATO membership, consolidated state institutions, and comparatively strong economic and security capacity provide substantial protection against renewed internal or interstate violence.

Recent reporting shows political and societal friction with Serbia over Croatian singer Marko Perković Thompson, whom Serbian officials associate with Ustasha symbolism and alleged neonazi sympathies. His planned performance for roughly 500,000 people has prompted condemnation from Serbia, but the episode currently indicates nationalist tension rather than organised armed mobilisation or an operational threat to Croatian territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether nationalist disputes could become linked to a broader deterioration in Croatia–Serbia relations or violence involving organised extremist groups. Risk would rise most clearly with cross-border attacks, sustained communal violence, or armed mobilisation inside Croatia; it would fall further with continued institutional management of contentious events and stable relations among Croatia, Serbia, and their European partners.