Romania

The 12-month probability of a new armed conflict on Romania’s territory is 3.1%, a moderate risk. Romania’s NATO membership, EU integration, functioning state institutions, and capable armed forces provide substantial protection. Its recent history is comparatively peaceful, although its location on the Black Sea and beside Ukraine places it near an active interstate war.

Recent reporting shows Russian strikes on Ukraine’s Izmail region disrupted the Orlivka border crossing serving traffic with Romania. The incident affected transport and military-trade logistics on the Ukrainian side, but the reporting does not establish fighting on Romanian territory. The principal actors are Russia and Ukraine, with Romania and NATO exposed through proximity, alliance commitments, and regional air-defence responsibilities.

The largest uncertainty is whether attacks around the Danube and Ukraine’s western logistics routes remain contained or produce a verified cross-border strike, deliberate escalation, or sustained armed activity in Romania. Risk would rise most clearly if Russian or other forces attacked Romanian territory or Romanian assets there; it would lower if the border area remained secure and allied deterrence, including the continued presence of US personnel, held firm.