Ukraine

The live 12-month probability is 10.8%, a high risk. Ukraine’s long history of political instability, the 2014 conflict, and Russia’s full-scale invasion demonstrate persistent exposure to armed violence. Limited institutional depth, wartime economic pressure, and dependence on external military support also constrain Kyiv’s ability to control escalation.

Recent reporting shows Russia preparing “massive strikes” on Ukrainian energy infrastructure after a deadly attack in Kyiv, while Russian forces continue grinding through the Donbas. Ukrainian officials have also warned of a possible Russian ground offensive toward Kyiv; these developments are primarily continuation of the existing war, but they sustain conditions in which a distinct new escalation or armed confrontation could arise on Ukrainian territory. India’s Narendra Modi has urged Vladimir Putin to end hostilities, while markets put ceasefire probabilities by October and December at 6.5–7.5% and 15.5–18.5%.

The largest uncertainty is whether Russia converts its reported preparations and offensive planning into a materially broader campaign, or whether diplomatic pressure produces a durable pause. A new assault on Kyiv, expanded attacks on critical infrastructure, or a breakdown in external support would raise risk; a verified ceasefire covering major fronts would lower it.