Moldova

Moldova faces a 2.3% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, a low risk. The principal long-run factor is the unresolved Transnistria conflict, where Russian troops remain present and Moldovan sovereignty is contested. Moldova’s limited military capacity and its position between Ukraine and Romania add exposure, although the country has avoided renewed large-scale fighting since the 1992 war.

Recent reporting shows heightened regional danger rather than fighting on Moldovan territory. On 24–25 August, a Russian Shahed drone strike damaged the Vynohradivka crossing near Moldova’s border with Ukraine; separate reporting on 1 September described damage and suspended operations at Ukraine’s Orlivka crossing on the Danube. The relevant actors are Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, and the Transnistrian authorities.

The largest uncertainty is whether Russia’s war against Ukraine produces a deliberate or accidental spillover, or whether tensions involving Transnistria become militarised. Risk would rise most clearly if Russian or separatist forces initiated armed action inside Moldova; sustained diplomatic management of Transnistria and continued containment of cross-border incidents would lower the prospect of a new onset.