Vanuatu

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Vanuatu is 0.2%, representing a minimal risk. The country has no recent record of civil war or sustained insurgency, and its political disputes have generally been managed through parliamentary and constitutional channels. Limited state capacity, geographic dispersion, and exposure to economic and social pressures remain relevant background vulnerabilities, but they have not translated into organised armed conflict.

Recent reporting supplies no specific indication of an emerging armed confrontation on Vanuatu’s territory. The principal domestic actors are political parties, parliament, the government, and customary and community authorities; there is no identified insurgent or separatist organisation posing a current nationwide challenge. No prediction market is available for Vanuatu.

The main uncertainty is whether a severe political crisis, localised communal violence, or an external dispute could overwhelm established mechanisms for peaceful competition. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained violence involving organised domestic groups, attacks on state institutions, or a breakdown of government authority; it would remain lower if political disputes continue to be resolved through elections, parliamentary votes, courts, and community mediation.