Fiji

Fiji faces a 0.4% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within the next 12 months, a minimal risk. The country’s history includes military coups in 1987, 2000, and 2006, showing that political crises have previously involved force. However, Fiji has also sustained state authority, economic capacity, and periods of peaceful political competition, all of which support the very low current level.

Recent reporting supplied for review contains no specific development indicating mobilisation by domestic armed actors, a serious constitutional breakdown, or an external threat reaching Fijian territory. The principal relevant actors are Fiji’s government, security forces, political parties, and communities whose disputes have historically been managed through political rather than sustained armed confrontation.

The largest uncertainty is whether a severe political or economic shock could again weaken civilian institutions and trigger military intervention or organised violence. Risk would rise most clearly with an attempted coup, armed clashes involving security forces, or prolonged mass unrest; it would remain lower if political disputes continue to be resolved through elections, courts, and established state channels.