Mauritius

Mauritius has a 0.5% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within the next 12 months, a minimal risk. The country has no established record of civil war or insurgency, maintains capable state institutions, and benefits from relatively strong economic capacity and political pluralism. These factors make sustained armed violence on Mauritian territory highly unusual.

Recent reporting supplied for 1 September 2026 contains no credible indication of armed mobilisation, an insurgent organisation, military factionalism, or an external actor preparing an attack on Mauritius. The principal relevant actors are the Mauritian government and security services; no domestic armed group or neighbouring state is identified as posing an imminent territorial threat.

The largest uncertainty is whether an unforeseen political, communal, or external-security shock could overwhelm established institutions and generate sustained violence. Risk would rise most clearly with organised armed mobilisation, military or police defections, or a hostile landing or cross-border attack; it would remain lower if political disputes continue to be managed through elections, courts, and civilian policing.