Nicaragua

Nicaragua faces a 12-month probability of 1.8%, classified as a low risk. Its history of civil war and political violence, including the Contra conflict in the 1980s and the 2018 crisis, leaves a meaningful underlying exposure. Limited institutional checks, concentrated political power, and constrained economic capacity also reduce the country’s ability to absorb a severe domestic shock peacefully.

Recent reporting supplied for review contains no specific indication of an imminent new armed conflict on Nicaraguan territory. The principal potential domestic actors would be the government and security forces, opposition networks, and armed groups emerging from political or social unrest; no neighbouring state or external armed group is identified as actively preparing a cross-border attack. No prediction market was available.

The main uncertainty is whether political repression, economic stress, or a sudden leadership crisis could turn non-violent mobilisation into sustained armed confrontation. Risk would rise most clearly if organised opposition groups began sustained attacks or if security-force defections produced competing armed centres; it would fall if political tensions remained managed without organised violence.