Costa Rica

The 12-month probability of a new armed conflict on Costa Rica’s territory is 0.3%, representing a minimal risk. The country’s long record of democratic governance, strong civilian institutions, and the abolition of its permanent military in 1948 support a very low likelihood of civil war, coup, or interstate attack. Costa Rica has not experienced a sustained internal armed conflict in the modern democratic era.

Recent reporting contains no indication of mobilisation, organised political violence, insurgency, or cross-border confrontation involving Costa Rica. The principal development reported was the accidental death of German consul Mario Genz in a boating incident at a Costa Rican crater lake; it has no apparent connection to armed conflict. No prediction-market signal is available.

The main uncertainty is whether organised-crime violence or a sudden political and regional shock could exceed the country’s established institutional capacity, although such violence would not automatically constitute armed conflict under this definition. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained armed clashes involving the state and domestic groups, or an external attack reaching Costa Rican territory; it would remain lower if institutions continue managing security pressures without such escalation.