Belize

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Belize is 0.3%, representing a minimal risk. Belize has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coup-related fighting, or interstate war on its territory. Its relatively stable institutions, small security environment, and absence of organised territorial rebellion support the very low level, although limited state capacity and persistent criminal violence remain relevant vulnerabilities.

Recent reporting shows serious but localised violence linked to criminal activity. Police have associated murders and a shooting involving a minor in Santa Elena and nearby villages with a drug turf war, while separate incidents in Belize City included a critical shooting allegedly involving a licensed firearm holder and the assault of a 15-year-old during a robbery. These incidents involve police and criminal actors, not an organised campaign against the state.

The largest uncertainty is whether drug-related groups could become more organised, heavily armed, and territorially ambitious. A sustained armed confrontation involving gangs and security forces, or evidence of cross-border armed action reaching Belize, would raise risk; continued police containment of localised crime and the absence of insurgent or interstate mobilisation would keep it minimal.