Mexico

The 12-month probability is 8.0%, representing a high risk of new armed conflict on Mexican territory. Mexico’s long history of cartel-related violence, powerful criminal organisations, uneven state control, corruption, and localised insecurity provides a persistent foundation for internal conflict onset. At the same time, national institutions, substantial economic capacity, and the state’s continuing ability to deploy security forces contain the likelihood of nationwide escalation.

Recent evidence provides limited direct indication of an imminent new conflict onset, but the principal external actor is the United States, whose pressure on Mexican authorities and possible use of force are reflected in current prediction-market contracts. The relevant domestic actors remain major drug-trafficking organisations and Mexican federal, state, and municipal security institutions; existing criminal violence is context rather than itself a new-onset event.

The largest uncertainty is whether cartel violence, political confrontation, or US–Mexico tensions could cross from persistent insecurity into sustained organised fighting on Mexican soil. Risk would rise most clearly after a confirmed cross-border US attack, a major cartel challenge to state authority, or coordinated clashes across multiple regions; it would fall with durable security cooperation and demonstrable restoration of state control.