Canada

The probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Canada within 12 months is 0.2%, representing a minimal risk. Canada’s strong institutions, high economic capacity, effective security services, and longstanding political stability support this level. It has no contemporary pattern of civil war, insurgency, coups, or sustained domestic armed violence, while its alliance with the United States and broader international partnerships reduce incentives for interstate confrontation.

Recent reporting is dominated by a serious Canada–U.S. trade dispute, not military escalation. Prime Minister Mark Carney has engaged Canadian business leaders after negotiations collapsed; President Donald Trump’s administration has imposed additional tariffs, including a reported 50.0% levy on many Canadian goods, and Canada has retaliated. The U.S. Treasury Secretary described the dispute as a political and economic confrontation, while coverage continues to frame it as a trade war rather than armed conflict.

The main uncertainty is whether worsening economic and political tensions could produce actions beyond tariffs or provoke isolated violence, although no such transition is reported. Risk would rise most clearly with a cross-border armed incident, coercive military deployment, or sustained organised violence inside Canada. Renewed negotiations, tariff reversals, and continued reliance on diplomatic and commercial channels would reinforce the minimal risk level.