United States

The live 12-month probability is 1.4%, making this a low risk. The United States has strong state capacity, resilient institutions, and no recent history of sustained civil war or insurgency. Its principal long-run exposure comes from intense political polarisation, widespread firearms access, and a history that includes the Civil War beginning in 1861.

No specific recent armed-conflict development or prediction-market signal is available in the reviewed material. The relevant actors would be federal and state authorities, politically motivated armed extremists, and potentially organised groups attempting to use violence against government or rival communities; isolated attacks would not by themselves constitute a new armed conflict.

The largest uncertainty is whether political or social confrontation could develop into sustained, organised violence rather than remain episodic. Risk would rise most clearly through coordinated armed-group mobilisation, territorial challenges, or prolonged clashes with authorities. Effective law-enforcement containment, functioning courts, and peaceful political transitions would support the low-risk assessment.