Guatemala

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Guatemala is 2.0%, a low risk. The country’s long civil war ended with the 1996 Peace Accords, and Guatemala has since maintained competitive institutions and a state capable of containing most violence. These factors support a low, rather than minimal, level because political polarization, weak rule of law, socioeconomic inequality, and entrenched criminal networks continue to create vulnerabilities.

Recent reporting supplied for this assessment contains no specific, dated development indicating that an armed confrontation is forming on Guatemalan territory. The principal potential domestic actors are state security forces, political factions, criminal organisations, and local armed groups; regional insecurity linked to organised crime remains relevant context but does not itself constitute a new conflict onset in Guatemala.

The largest uncertainty is whether political or criminal violence could combine with institutional paralysis and sustained mobilisation. Risk would rise most clearly if armed groups began holding territory, attacking security forces in coordinated campaigns, or if a political crisis produced sustained armed clashes. It would fall with durable political accommodation, stronger security-sector control, and continued containment of organised crime.